The race for Nakuru’s Senate seat is already gathering steam, two years before the 2027 general election.

What began as quiet schemes and rumours is fast turning into a high-stakes contest, pitting the OG contenders against new ones, while placing Governor Susan Kihika at the center of it all.

At the heart of the contest is Nakuru Town East MP David Gikaria, who is ‘the diamond of the season’.

Having served three consecutive terms in Parliament, Gikaria is widely seen as Kihika’s political choice to challenge the incumbent Senator, following her fallout with the governor.

Gikaria’s political career stretches back over two decades.

He began as a councillor for Lake View Ward in the defunct Nakuru Municipal Council, later becoming the town’s mayor.

He returned as a councillor when he transitioned to national politics, winning the Nakuru Town East parliamentary seat under The National Alliance (TNA) and later UDA.

Before joining politics, Gikaria worked as an auditor at the Pyrethrum Board of Kenya, a background that earned him a reputation for financial diligence.

Another household name in Nakuru’s emerging political landscape is Dr. Peter Mbae, the former Head of Government Delivery Services.

Before his resignation, Dr. Mbae also served as Head of Ministerial Secretary Programmes in the Ministry of Public Service and earlier as Secretary for Investments Promotion and Head of the Ministerial Delivery Unit at the Ministry of Investments, Trade and Industry.

His public service career traces back to Nakuru, where he was a Member of the County Public Service Board and Kabazi Ward MCA during the previous administration.

After leaving public service, Dr. Mbae has been actively advocating for human rights and good governance, while also declaring his interest in the senatorial seat on a Democratic Congress Party (DCP) ticket, and seeks to unseat incumbent Senator Tabitha Karanja.

Another contender is Lawyer Lawrence Macharia Karanja, who is making a second run for the senatorial race.

The former Chief Administrative Secretary in the Ministry of Industrialization has been at the center of landmark legal battles in Nakuru, including successfully challenging the county government’s bid to increase land rates and defending the War Memorial Hospital’s lease in court.

Previously endorsed by the Rift Valley Law Society of Kenya to run for the seat in 2022, Karanja seems to appeal to the professional class and reform-minded voters who value the rule of law, accountability, and institutional integrity.

According to political analyst Eng. Victor Ngatia, Nakuru’s senatorial contests have historically been shaped by the depth of the candidate’s pockets.

“If you look at how Nakuru has voted for its senators, money has always played a big role. In 2013, we elected James Mungai, who ran an expensive and serious campaign before people even understood what the Senate was about. In 2017, Susan Kihika did the same. She understood the role, went all out, and spent heavily to win it,” he says.

He observes that the 2022 race didn’t necessarily follow a similar pattern (monetarily), this time with the influence of Governor Susan Kihika.

“By 2022, it wasn’t necessarily about who had the deepest pockets. It was guided by Susan Kihika, who knew how to campaign, having served as a senator herself. She rallied support for Tabitha Karanja, and that’s largely how Tabitha won,” he explains.

Eng. Ngatia notes that despite growing calls for change, financial power and patronage remain major factors in Nakuru’s politics.

“Nakuru has not yet reached a level where most voters can stand on their own economically. Many still depend on handouts. Not because they don’t know it’s wrong, but because they lack alternatives. So, money will still play a big part in 2027,” he says.

Even so, he believes a generational shift is emerging, more so a push by younger voters and professionals for leaders with integrity, performance records, and vengeance.

“There’s a new demand, especially from youth, for leaders who can deliver. This isn’t unique to Nakuru; across Africa, we’re seeing a wave of change where citizens are rejecting old politics and pushing for self-empowerment. That sentiment might also shape Nakuru’s 2027 race,” Eng. Ngatia notes, adding that it leaves everything at a 50-50 chance.

On individual candidates, he points out that there are many candidates who differ in visibility, approach, and their campaign runs will also tell.

“Lawrence Karanja has the profile and would make a capable senator. But his challenge is how he connects with the people- whether he comes across as a new-generation leader or part of the old guard,” he observes.

“On the other hand, Dr. Mbae seems to understand modern campaigning. He’s engaging the public through social media, mainstream media, and direct community outreach, which gives him an edge.”

Eng. Ngatia believes that incumbency may not guarantee re-election for Senator Tabitha Karanja, and questions whether some aspirants can overcome past public perceptions.

“I don’t think Tabitha will defend the seat and might opt for another position,” he says.

“As for Gikaria, his record as MP could haunt him. Voters have long memories, and any past disappointments will be used against leaders seeking new offices. That could open the door for fresh faces.”

He also highlights the role of national politics, noting that ruling coalitions are likely to influence local races in an effort to maintain dominance.

“National influence will always be there. The government will want to retain its key allies in Nakuru. Every seat matters, so they’ll work to keep as many loyal leaders as possible. But at the end of the day, how these leaders perform in their current terms will determine whether voters stick with them or look elsewhere,” Ngatia says.

Since the advent of devolution, Nakuru has had three senators.

James Mungai was followed by Susan Kihika, who is now the governor. Tabitha Karanja succeeded her in 2022 and faces a tough re-election battle as new power equations take shape.

During the 2022 general election in Nakuru, a total of 10 candidates ran for the senatorial seat.

Aside from the three highlighted in this story, we expect more candidates to publicly declare their intentions to vie

As the county gears up for another bruising political season, one question looms: will Nakuru voters stick with established political networks, reward familiar faces, or turn to a new generation of technocrats?

The answer may well determine whose political orbit the county will revolve around next.

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Leleti Jassor