On March 9, 2018, the handshake between Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta on the steps of Harambee House sent shockwaves through political circles. The move had tongues wagging, as many speculated its implications.

At the time, Deputy President William Ruto termed it a “mongrel” governance system, where it was unclear whether the government was in opposition or vice versa.

The Beginning of a Political Shift in Nakuru

Following the handshake and the fallout with his deputy, it became clear that Kenyatta was leaning toward Odinga as his successor.

The repercussions of this political realignment were soon felt in Nakuru.

The first indication came during the conferment of city status to Nakuru, where Ruto was conspicuously absent, while Uhuru made an appearance with Odinga.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui during the conferment ofNakuru to city status on December 1, 2021.

Photo credit: COURTESY/PSCU

As the election season drew closer, the political landscape began to shift. Odinga made numerous visits to Nakuru in an attempt to win over the county's over one million voters.

Meanwhile, Lee Kinyanjui, the then-governor and Uhuru’s point person in the region, was trusted with the uphill task of delivering Nakuru, a county perceived to be part of the Mount Kenya region.

Raila's Quest to Win Over Nakuru

Historically, Nakuru had not been a friendly territory for Odinga. Despite his previous efforts, including his presidential bids in 2007, 2013, and 2017, the county had never fully embraced his candidacy.

Even during the 2022 election campaign, the situation remained unchanged. When Odinga visited various areas in Nakuru, he faced significant resistance.

The former governor, Lee Kinyanjui, found it challenging to sell the idea of Raila as a viable candidate. In some areas, residents even told him, "Wewe omba yako. Hio ya juu, wachana nayo."

Despite this resistance, Odinga remained committed to his bid for Nakuru, understanding its strategic importance in the broader context of national politics.

However, his efforts ultimately did not pay off, and he suffered a resounding defeat in the county.

Lee Kinyanjui and Raila Odinga addressing the media during campaigns on January 5, 2022.

Photo credit: COURTESY/NGPU

History Repeating Itself

Fast forward to 2025, and we’ve seen significant political shifts within the Mount Kenya region.

The impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, coupled with the recent loss of key committee positions by Mount Kenya MPs, has created a growing sense of discontent among some political players in the region.

On March 7, 2025, the agreement between Raila and President Ruto sent a bold message to the political arena, signalling a shift in Kenya’s national politics.

At the forefront of this transformation is Susan Kihika, the current governor of Nakuru. Like her predecessor, she finds herself stepping into a complex political situation, caught between the shifting national alignments.

As the weight of the national political realignments bears down on her, Kihika finds herself in a precarious position.

The Wamunyoro Factor and Kihika’s Tough Decision

Governance expert, Laban Omusundi points out that while Nakuru is considered a cosmopolitan area, the Kikuyu community is the dominant group.

He notes that with the “Wamunyoro factor” coming into play, many may not support the so-called handshake between Raila and Ruto.

“Given the Wamunyoro factor, I don’t think the people of Nakuru will buy into the idea of the handshake between Raila and Ruto. The Governor now finds herself in a very tough position,”Omusindi says.

“She must choose whether to realign with the Wamunyoro side or declare her support for the broad-based government of William Ruto and Raila Odinga, which does not seem to sit well with those in the Mount Kenya region,” he advices.

Benson Macharia Chairman of Friends of devolution Nakuru County, agrees with the sentiments of Omusundi noting that the current political scene creates a tough choice for the politicians in power, especially those with ties in the Mount Kenya region.

Additionally, the Chairman says, " Susan Kihika will never go against William Ruto. She has been playing it close to the chest avoiding to comment on matters national politics, knowing that if she comments on the matter regarding the Raila-Ruto handshake she may face a lot of backlash from the people of the Mountain.

He continues to say, “Also remember Lee Kinyanjui went to Ruto's government so both of them are supporting Ruto. Kihika may avoid taking sides and focus on matters governance in Nakuru county for now, but down the road, the battle lines will have to be drawn."

Only time will tell which cards Governor Susan Kihika will play to secure her seat in 2027.

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Joseph Openda